CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2023-09-16T09:12:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2023-09-16T09:12ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/26949/-1
CME Note: Wide, complex, difficult to analyze CME with primary directionality (bulk) to the southwest in SOHO and STEREO A coronagraphs but containing features also seen to the west, south, and southeast along a discontinuous front. Associated with a large-scale filament eruption taking place on the Earth-facing disk from 2023-09-16T07:00Z to 09:00Z seen best in SDO/GOES 304; filament extends from N30W00 southwest through N10W30 with a minor, more narrow segment extending back east from N10W30 back towards S03W05. Arrival signature: Sudden sharp jump in solar wind parameters with B total reaching 21 nT and speed increasing above 550 km/s. May be indicative of additional coronal hole high speed stream influences (Tarik Salman, LASSOS team) from coronal hole at central meridian on 2023-09-15. Less likely but possible that this is a combined arrival of this CME and the 2023-09-14T23:12Z CME.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2023-09-18T12:58Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 7.0
Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-09-19T10:29Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Prediction Method: EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)
Prediction Method Note:
************************************************************************************** % Compiled module: EAM ************************************************************************************** Most pr. speed = 523.0 km/sec The EAM version you are running is: v3 Utilizing the upgraded version EAM_v3 [Paouris et al. 2021 - DOI: 10.1007/s11207-020-01747-4] u_r = 329.589 Acceleration: 1.77853 Duration in seconds: 263845.72 Duration in days: 3.0537699 t2 is negative ************************************************************************************** Acceleration of the CME: 1.78 m/s^2 Velocity of the CME at 1 AU: 798.8 km/s Expected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 19/09/2023 Time: 10:29 UT **************************************************************************************Lead Time: 16.60 hour(s)
Difference: -21.52 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Evangelos Paouris (UoA) on 2023-09-17T20:22Z
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